Physical priors improve performance of structure-based binding affinity models.

Structure-based drug discovery is a widely used paradigm for the rational design of novel small molecule therapeutics. However, the benefits conferred by the use of structural information has seen limited adoption in machine learning, where ligand-only ("2D") models are still the industry standard for molecular property or binding affinity prediction. Structure-based ("3D") ML models for binding-affinity prediction promise to present a clear advantage, but have not yet overtaken existing 2D models. Here, we show that physics-based priors can improve predictive performance of structure-based models by comparing different model architectures with varying physical priors on several prediction tasks. We present the Modular Training and Evaluation of Neural Networks (mtenn) package, where we decompose affinity prediction into separate steps of embedding structure into learned representations and combining those embeddings into a predicted binding affinity. We consider both E(3)-invariant and E(3)-equivariant architectures to determine the importance of encoding roto-translational inductive biases, as well as different methods for combining learned embeddings. By first optimizing several aspects of model construction using the general purpose PDBBind dataset, we are able to improve the performance and data efficiency of structure-based models. When subsequently trained and evaluated on the COVID Moonshot small molecule drug discovery dataset, our tuned models perform on par with industry standard ligand-only models. Our decomposed model framework highlights that encoding some physical priors improves model performance, while more complex biases such as equivariance offer limited benefit. Additionally, structure-based models generalize better to an unseen target and display higher training efficiency. Overall, these results emphasize that structure-based models benefit from their ability to incorporate physics-informed constraints, giving promising directions for model architecture development. These results also suggest that the strength of these models may be in tasks specifically aimed at generalizability, providing guidelines for their use in early-stage drug discovery campaigns.