ArticleNature communications2026
Crustal weakening before rupture at volcanoes after long repose.
Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
At volcanoes reawakening after prolonged quiescence, local seismicity commonly increases before eruption. The earthquakes occur as crust extends over a zone of pressurising fluid several kilometres underground. The deformation causes existing faults to slip and new fractures to open. An eruption is most likely when the fractures grow large enough to rupture the crust. Fracture growth coincides with a net decrease in the elastic energy stored in the crust. Here we present a method for following changes in stored energy through a balance between the energy supplied by the pressure source and lost by seismicity. We test the method against unrest sequences at two large calderas, Sierra Negra and Campi Flegrei. The results provide a practical procedure for identifying the onset of fracture growth and, hence, for recognising an increased potential for crustal rupture.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.