ArticleInfectious disease reports2026
Performance and Validation of a New Long-Term Mortality Risk Score in Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Colombian Cohort.
Article in Infectious disease reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundCommunity-acquired pneumonia (CAP) causes significant long-term morbidity and mortality. Existing clinical scores focus on short-term outcomes, highlighting the need to validate tools that accurately predict 12-month mortality in hospitalized patients. MATERIALS AND
methodsA retrospective cohort of adults hospitalized with CAP from 2012 to 2020 was analyzed. Clinical, laboratory, radiological, and hospitalization-related data were collected. A Cox proportional hazards model was developed to predict post-acute mortality between 30 days and 12 months after hospital admission among patients with CAP who survived the first 30 days, with the cohort split 50:50. Model performance was evaluated using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) and standard diagnostic accuracy metrics.
resultsA total of 13,851 patients with CAP were included. In the derivation cohort, independent predictors were altered mental status (HR 2.08; 95% CI 1.49-2.90;
conclusionsThe new score demonstrated weak-to-moderate discriminatory capacity. The variables included in the new score reflect multiorgan involvement, disease severity, and comorbidity burden, all of which are associated with long-term mortality.
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