ArticleFrontiers in microbiology2026
Nomogram-based prediction of in-hospital mortality and embolic events in infective endocarditis.
Article in Frontiers in microbiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Infective endocarditis (IE) remains a life-threatening infection associated with high short-term mortality and frequent thromboembolic complications. Reliable bedside tools for early and individualized risk stratification remain limited. This study aimed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality and new embolic events in adult patients with IE and to develop and internally validate nomogram-based prediction models. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included consecutive adult patients with definite IE admitted to Guangzhou First People's Hospital between January 2020 and December 2025, according to the 2023 Duke-ISCVID criteria. Six routinely available variables-age, vegetation size, white blood cell (WBC) count, log Results: A total of 62 patients were included. In-hospital mortality occurred in 8 patients (12.9%) and new embolic events in 13 patients (21.0%). For the embolic model, echocardiographic vegetation size and WBC count were independently associated with embolic risk, yielding an AUC of 0.882. For the mortality model, log Conclusion: NT-proBNP was independently associated with in-hospital mortality, whereas vegetation size and WBC count were key predictors of embolic risk in patients with IE. These nomogram-based models provide practical tools for individualized bedside risk assessment. External validation in larger multicenter cohorts is warranted.
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