Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42768846›Full record

ArticleAlzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association2026

Do amyloid trajectories reach a ceiling? Evidence from iterative approximation and simulation.

Jason R Gantenberg, Renaud La Joie, Margo B Heston, Sarah F Ackley, Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Do amyloid trajectories reach a ceiling? Evidence from iterative approximation and simulation.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jason R GantenbergDepartment of Health Services, Policy, and Practice, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8144-4273
Renaud La JoieEdward and Pearl Fein Memory and Aging Center, Weill Institute for Neurosciences, Department of Neurology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2581-8100
Margo B HestonEdward and Pearl Fein Memory and Aging Center, Weill Institute for Neurosciences, Department of Neurology, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0980-2275
Sarah F AckleyDepartment of Epidemiology, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0181-6063
Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Funding

Project 1U19AG024904 · NIA · NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE/RES/EDU · PI MICHAEL W WEINER · 2016 to 2026
$226.7M
Research Education ComponentP30AG062422 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Katherine P Rankin · 2019 to 2026
$36.9M
Project 4: Social isolation as a driver of AD/ADRD incidence and disparitiesP01AG082653 · NIA · BOSTON UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CAMPUS · PI Jacqueline Marie Torres · 2024 to 2026
$23.6M
Mathematical Models of Tau-PET Measures and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease Across the LifespanR00AG073454 · NIA · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI Sarah Ackley · 2024 to 2026
$742k
The Disadvantage Exposome as a Driver of Alzheimer’s Disease PathologyK00AG097172 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI Margo Heston · 2025 to 2026
$169k
NIA NIH HHS K00 AG097172NIA NIH HHS P01 AG082653NIA NIH HHS P30 AG062422NIA NIH HHS R00 AG073454NIA NIH HHS U19 AG024904NIH/NIA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionQualitative models of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology often posit that amyloid accumulation follows a sigmoid curve, indicating that the rate of deposition wanes over time. Longitudinal positron emission tomography (PET) data now allow us to investigate amyloid accumulation trajectories with greater detail and over longer follow-up periods.

methodsWe combine inferences from simulated amyloid trajectories, empirical PET data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), and the sampled iterative local approximation algorithm (SILA) to assess whether amyloid accumulation reaches a physiologic ceiling.

resultsSILA reliably detects a ceiling in simulated scenarios that impose a sigmoid shape. Fit to ADNI, SILA does not appear to indicate the presence of a ceiling. DISCUSSION: Amyloid trajectories may not reach a physiologic ceiling during the stages of AD typically observed while patients remain under follow-up in cohort studies. Illustrative models of biomarker cascades, while useful for conceptualizing pathologic processes, may not represent amyloid trajectory shapes accurately.

Indexed as

Alzheimer DiseaseAmyloidAmyloid beta-PeptidesBrainAlgorithmsComputer SimulationHumansPositron-Emission TomographyAmyloidAmyloid beta-Peptidesamyloidbiomarker modelingsampled iterative local approximationsimulation

Identifiers

PMID42768846
PMCPMC13594776

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.