ArticleBMJ open2026
Projecting the future spread of yellow fever vectors and implications for epidemic risk: a scoping review of climate change and human behaviour.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundYellow fever is a vector-borne disease with high epidemic potential. Although currently concentrated in Africa and Latin America, both climate change and human behaviour are likely to affect its future spread and epidemic risk. However, how these factors might interact to alter yellow fever distribution remains unclear.
objectivesThis scoping review aimed to map the available literature at the intersection of these topics and compile the trends that may influence the future spread of yellow fever. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies were included if they reported original data on future trends in yellow fever epidemiology or vector evolution in the context of climate change, climate variability and human behaviour. Review articles, reports without original data, reports not addressing future trends in yellow fever epidemiology or vector evolution in the context of climatic factors or human behaviour were excluded. SOURCES OF EVIDENCE: Systematic searches of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL were conducted from database inception up to September 2024, alongside manual searches of congress abstract books conducted in September 2024. CHARTING
methodsThe project followed Joanna Briggs Institute methodology for scoping reviews, using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews guidelines. Searches focused on publications containing data relating to predicting, modelling or forecasting trends over time in yellow fever disease, virus and vector dynamics in relation to climatic factors and/or human behaviour. Search results underwent two-step screening against inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were manually extracted using a bespoke Excel form, with results classified according to expert opinion. Trends in the dataset were identified using generative artificial intelligence as a drafting aid and all final categorisation and interpretation was determined through expert manual review.
resultsIn all, 1243 studies were screened and 42 met inclusion criteria. The oldest study was published in 2009, and 67% were published between 2019 and 2024. Most (81%) were modelling studies. Most included studies projected a climate-driven expansion in the range and abundance of major yellow fever vectors, particularly
conclusionsThe available literature suggests that changing climatic conditions and human activities such as urbanisation and land use will likely contribute to future increases in yellow fever vector abundance and geographical range. While most relevant analyses suggest that increases in human exposure and transmission risk are likely to follow, evidence related to these factors was more limited.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.