ArticleFrontiers in epidemiology2026
Insights on United States cumulative measles cases during the 2026 outbreak using ARIMA and generalized linear models.
Article in Frontiers in epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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4 authors.
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Abstract
To understand the nature of the current measles outbreaks taking place across the United States in 2026, we analyzed historical surveillance data dating back to 1997 using four distinct forecasting models. By withholding data from the first four months of 2026 for out-of-sample validation, we evaluated how well traditional trend tracking and temporal dependence could anticipate this year's trajectory. While models incorporating short-term patterns performed best overall, every single model underestimated the cumulative cases recorded by May 1, 2026. This systematic underprediction reveals that the ongoing resurgence cannot be explained merely as a continuation of past trends or 2025 outbreak effects. Instead, 2026 represents a distinct, more severe outbreak regime, as the projected annual burden was already reached by May. These findings indicate that public health tracking must adapt to this heightened risk environment, and warn that the final 2026 case burden will substantially exceed that of previous years.
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