Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42750540›Full record

Trial reportDiabetes, obesity & metabolism2026

Predicting the Long-Term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease With Orforglipron in People With Overweight or Obesity: A Post Hoc Analysis of the ATTAIN-1 Trial.

Shraddha Shinde, Florian Kahles, Simona Vasileva-Metodiev, Ryan Griffin, Hong Liu-Seifert, Jeremie Lebrec, Neena A Xavier, Runjia Li, Suzanne R Klise, Ambrish Singh and 1 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readRandomized Controlled TrialClinical Trial, Phase III
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in Diabetes, obesity & metabolism, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05869903 (A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities), which is not on this map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05869903 phase3active not recruitingnot on this map

A Phase 3, Randomized, Double-Blind Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of Once-Daily Oral Orforglipron Compared With Placebo in Adult Participants With Obesity or Overweight With Weight-Related Comorbidities (ATTAIN-1)

TypeinterventionalSponsorEli Lilly and CompanyRan2023 to 2027Enrolled3,127ConditionsObesity, Overweight, Overweight or ObesityArmsOrforglipron, Placebo
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Shraddha ShindeEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0003-0120-7580
Florian KahlesDepartment of Cardiology, Angiology and Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital RWTH Aachen, Aachen, Germany.
Simona Vasileva-MetodievEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Ryan GriffinEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Hong Liu-SeifertEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9534-0483
Jeremie LebrecHaaPACS GmbH, Schriesheim, Germany.
Neena A XavierEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Runjia LiEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Suzanne R KliseEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Ambrish SinghEli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA.
Jens AberleUniversity Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.

Funding

Eli Lilly and Company
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo assess change in long-term predicted 10-year cardiometabolic risk (Type 2 diabetes [T2D] and cardiovascular disease [CVD]) in adults with overweight or obesity without T2D.

methodsThis post hoc analysis used data from ATTAIN-1, a Phase 3 trial in adults (≥ 18 years) with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m

resultsAt week 72, mean relative reduction from baseline (median baseline scores: 16.0%-17.3%) in T2D risk score was significantly greater with orforglipron than placebo (-48.6% to -59.4% vs. -10.5%; p < 0.0001; HR-range 0.43-0.55). Using Framingham, at week 72, orforglipron was associated with a significant decrease in mean absolute change in total CVD risk vs placebo (-0.6% to -1.00% vs. +0.6%; p < 0.0001; HR range: 0.82-0.87). Similarly, at week 72, orforglipron was associated with reduced predicted ASCVD, HF, and total CVD risks compared to placebo, assessed using PREVENT (p < 0.0001).

conclusionsIn this post hoc analysis, once-daily oral orforglipron was associated with statistically significant improvements in predicted 10-year risk of incident T2D and CVD compared with placebo over 72 weeks using three validated risk prediction models.

trial registrationATTAIN-1: NCT05869903.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2ObesityOverweightAdultDouble-Blind MethodFemaleFluorine CompoundsHumansMaleMiddle AgedOxadiazolesRisk AssessmentFluorine CompoundsorforglipronOxadiazolescardiovascular diseasesglucagon‐like peptide‐1 receptor agonistobesityorforglipronoverweightrisk assessmentType 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID42750540
PMCPMC13730976

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.