Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42749744›Full record

ArticleScientific data2026

Mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from the 1970s to 2023.

Inès N Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Charles Amory, Martin Horwath, Erik R Ivins, Michalea D King, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J Payne, Eric Rignot, Louise Sandberg Sørensen and 48 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific data, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

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  12. Barystatic sea level change observed by satellite gravimetry: 1993-2022.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  13. Increased sea-level contribution from northwestern Greenland for models that reproduce observations.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  14. Article
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  20. Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.Communications earth & environment · 2025
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

58 authors.

Inès N OtosakaCentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK. ines.otosaka@northumbria.ac.uk.
Andrew ShepherdCentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK.
Charles AmoryInstitut des Géosciences de l'Environnement, University Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble, France.
Martin HorwathInstitute of Planetary Geodesy, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
Erik R IvinsJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA.
Michalea D KingPolar Science Center, University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
Sophie NowickiDepartment of Geology and RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA.
Anthony J PayneDepartment of Earth, Ocean and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Eric RignotEarth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA.
Louise Sandberg SørensenDTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark.
Nicole-Jeanne SchlegelNOAA/OAR, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA.
Karen M SimonCanadian Geodetic Survey, Ottawa, Canada.
Benjamin E SmithPolar Science Center, University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
Tyler C SutterleyPolar Science Center, University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA.
Michiel R van den BroekeInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Isabella VelicognaEarth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA.
Geruo AEarth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA.
Cécile AgostaLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, UMR8212, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Pavel DitmarDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
Thorben DöhneInstitute of Planetary Geodesy, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
Marcus E EngdahlClimate Action, Sustainability and Science Department, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy.
Xavier FettweisLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
Rene ForsbergDTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark.
Alex S GardnerJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA.
Linda GilbertMSSL, University College London, London, UK.
Heiko GoelzerNORCE Research, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway.
Noel GourmelenSchool of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Andreas GrohInstitute of Planetary Geodesy, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
Nicolaj HansenNational Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Christopher HarigDepartment of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA.
Veit HelmGlaciology, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Shfaqat Abbas KhanDTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark.
Christoph KittelLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
Peter L LangenDepartment of Environmental Science, iClimate, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
Mathias LarsenDepartment of Environmental Science, iClimate, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
Bryant D LoomisGeodesy and Geophysics Laboratory, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, USA.
Malcolm McMillanUK Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Centre of Excellence in Environmental Data Science, Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK.
Brooke MedleyEarth Sciences Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA.
Daniele MeliniIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy.
Ruth H MottramNational Centre for Climate Research, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Alan MuirSpace and Climate Physics, University College London, London, UK.
Johan NilssonJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA.
Brice NoëlLaboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, SPHERES research unit, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium.
Mark E PattleisardSAT, Guildford, UK.
Mònica Roca I ApariciisardSAT, Barcelona, Catalonia.
Ingo SasgenGlaciology, Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Himanshu V SaveCenter for Space Research, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, USA.
Bernd ScheuchlEarth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA.
Ernst J O SchramaFaculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
Ludwig SchröderInstitute of Planetary Geodesy, TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
Ki-Weon SeoSeoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
Sebastian B SimonsenDTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs, Lyngby, Denmark.
Thomas SlaterCentre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Northumbria University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK.
Giorgio SpadaDipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia "Augusto Righi", Università di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Bramha Dutt VishwakarmaInterdisciplinary Centre for Water Research, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India.
Nander WeverWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland.
David N WieseJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA.
Bert WoutersDepartment of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.

Funding

Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft SCHE 1426/28-1European Space Agency 4000126523/19/I-NBEuropean Space Agency 4000126813/19/I-NBEuropean Space Agency 4000128095/19/I-DTEuropean Space Agency 4000134549/21/I-NBFonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS 2.5020.1German Federal Ministry of Education and Research 03F0855CHelmholtz Association REKLIMHorizon 2020 Framework Programme 869304Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia MACMAPNASA 80NSSC20K1064NASA 80NSSC21K0917NASA 80NSSC22K1709NASA ICESat-2 Project Science OfficeNASA NNH23ZDA001N-GRACEFONASA MEaSUREs 80NSSC23M0146Natural Environment Research Council NE/X019071/1Natural Environment Research Council NE/Y006178/1Norges Forskningsråd 324639Novo Nordisk NNF23OC00807040Novo Nordisk NNF23OC0081251
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are major drivers of global mean sea level rise and are predicted to continue to do so in the future. However, they also represent the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise making robust estimates of observed ice sheet mass changes critical. Here, we compare and combine 42 independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance derived from satellite observations of temporal changes in ice sheet flow, volume, and gravitational attraction to determine the ice sheet mass balance from 1972 (Greenland) and 1979 (Antarctica) until 2023. We then use regional climate models to partition the total mass balance into contributions associated with surface mass balance and ice dynamical imbalance. The ice sheets lost 11,309 ± 565 billion tonnes of ice between 1979 and 2023, with glacier dynamical imbalance driving 84% of the ice loss and surface mass balance the remainder. This dataset can be used to track the contribution of the ice sheets to sea level rise and constrain projections of future sea level rise.

Identifiers

PMID42749744
PMCPMC13582886

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.