Social network exposures, political party affiliation, and perceived health risk.

Why do people perceive risk differently during the same public health crisis? Using longitudinal, nationally representative panel data from the Understanding America Study spanning two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States (March 2020--February 2022), we show risk perception can be a result of both social experience and social construction. Specifically, we examine how risk exposure within close social networks and political party affiliation jointly shape perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. Results indicate that each additional social network member's infection, hospitalization, or death predicts higher perceived risk of the corresponding outcome (all p ≤ .01). Republicans report lower perceived risks than Democrats on average, but the association between social network infections and perceived infection risk is steeper among Republicans (p < .05), which suggests that risk exposure and political identity also interact in creating risk perception. Party-stratified models corroborate that within-person increases in network exposures are followed by higher perceived risks. Phase-specific analyses reveal shifting salience of network experiences and partisan identity across the pandemic. Risk exposure in social networks and political identity (partisanship) appear to operate jointly in shaping health risk perceptions, highlighting the need for tailored risk communication strategies to support effective preparedness for future pandemics.