ArticleScience advances2026
Will there be a warning for the next pandemic?
Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
How to best allocate resources to combat the threat of pathogen emergence remains an important open question. Using archetypes that characterize the link from genotype to fitness in both zoonotic reservoirs and humans, we show that, across a range of plausible conditions, emergences of pathogens with pandemic potential in humans are unlikely to be preceded by detectable, failed, attempts. Yet, the number of "failed" emergence events contains information about the emergence potential of zoonotic pathogens, and should modify our beliefs about the underlying fitness landscape. Our work suggests that the most important, modifiable, risk factors for emergence may be phenomena that alter fitness landscapes, such as viral ecology in bridge species and human immunological landscapes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.