Suicide Mortality Among Young People in Brazil: A National Time-Series Analysis, 2000-2023.

Background Suicide mortality among young people has increased in Brazil, but prior studies have used heterogeneous age-group definitions and may have underestimated the burden by relying only on deaths coded as intentional self-harm. Methods This nationwide ecological time-series study used data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System and official population estimates. All deaths among individuals aged 10-29 years from 2000 to 2023 were included. Analyses were stratified by sex, age group, and geographic region. Suicide deaths were defined using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes X60-X84. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated using the 2022 Brazilian population. Trends were assessed using joinpoint and negative binomial regression models, with a sensitivity analysis including deaths of undetermined intent. Results Between 2000 and 2023, 77,012 suicide deaths occurred among individuals aged 10-29 years. The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 3.68 to 7.37 per 100,000. Rates rose in both males and females and across all age groups, with faster increases after 2015. The 10- to 14-year group showed the largest relative increase, while mortality among those aged 25-29 years accelerated after 2018. Including deaths of undetermined intent increased overall estimates but did not change trend patterns. Conclusions Suicide mortality among Brazilian individuals aged 10-29 years doubled between 2000 and 2023, with acceleration in recent years. The findings highlight important heterogeneity across age groups and regions, supporting the need for more granular surveillance and targeted prevention strategies.