Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42745004›Full record

ArticleNature human behaviour2026

Large estimated size of the Australian Indigenous population before its extensive decline following colonial invasion.

Alan N Williams, Raymond Tobler, Billy Griffiths, Sean Ulm, Matthew C Nitschke, Michael I Bird, Shane Ingrey, Frédérik Saltré, Kirsty Beller, Ian J McNiven and 5 more

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Nature human behaviour, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Alan N Williams *School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. alan.williams1@jcu.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4133-4229
Raymond ToblerAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4603-1473
Billy GriffithsAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8906-5059
Sean UlmAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6653-9963
Matthew C NitschkeAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0004-7649-7081
Michael I BirdAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1801-8703
Shane IngreyAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3605-6615
Frédérik SaltréAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5040-3911
Kirsty BellerGujaga Foundation, La Perouse, New South Wales, Australia.
Ian J McNivenAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5767-2199
Nicholas PittAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5695-9275
Lynette RussellAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8978-9823
Alistair PatersonAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3370-7390
Christopher WilsonAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0218-6895
Corey J A Bradshaw *Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia. corey.bradshaw@flinders.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5328-7741

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Estimating the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European colonial invasion is invaluable to truth-telling and reconciliation. Robust estimates of the population dynamics of pre-colonial Indigenous Australians are poor owing to lethal diseases, frontier and structural violence, and absence of systematic censuses. Here we review ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and modelled carrying capacity to infer Indigenous population size before colonial invasion. Congruency of the modelled and genetics-based (not historical or ethnographic accounts) estimates suggests a bootstrapped pre-colonial median of 2.22 million, or 0.29 people km

Identifiers

PMID42745004

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.