ArticleiScience2026
Rethinking chemical clusters: Greenfield and brownfield transition to net-zero by 2050.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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Abstract
We develop a cluster-level optimization framework to design brownfield transition pathways toward net-zero chemical clusters by 2050, applied to existing ammonia-olefin clusters in the Netherlands. The model represents sequential investment decisions for 2030, 2040, and 2050, includes scope 1-3 emissions, and enables a systematic comparison of greenfield and brownfield configurations. Thirteen olefin and eight ammonia production routes are considered. The results show that, despite reduced flexibility due to legacy assets, net-zero brownfield configurations remain feasible. Plastic gasification combined with methanol-to-olefins emerges as a low-regret option for olefins, while electric steam methane reforming and electrolyzers are robust choices for ammonia. The results support early investment rather than strategic delay. Excluding scope 3 emissions leads to lock-in of fossil-based options that appear cost-effective short-term but raise long-term system costs. Sensitivity analyses highlight uncertainties related to infrastructure and technology availability, bio-feedstock prices, and plastic waste emission accounting.
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