Mutation-Aware Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Binding Affinity of Nirmatrelvir Analogs Targeting Coronavirus Main Proteases.

The emergence of resistance-associated mutations in coronavirus main protease (Mpro) poses a significant challenge to the development of broad-spectrum antiviral therapeutics. In this study, we improved and accelerated a mutation-aware machine learning (ML) framework to predict the binding score of Nirmatrelvir analogue ligands against wild-type and mutant MERS-CoV Mpro. A library of 15,889 Nirmatrelvir derivatives generated through systematic scaffold modification was docked against the wild-type and five variants of the Mpro, producing a total of 95,334 structural and docking score datasets of these protein-ligand complexes. During the ML model development phase, ligand effects were learned from RDKit molecular descriptors and graph-based representations, and the mutation-induced effects were captured through delta-encoded physicochemical properties (hydrophobicity, charge, aromaticity, and polarity) of the active-site residues. Among the evaluated models, the CatBoost regressor tree-based algorithm achieved the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) value of 0.23 Kcal/mol and an R