ArticleNature microbiology2026
Pneumococcal population structure influences the effects of air pollution on invasive disease risk in South Africa.
Article in Nature microbiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
Streptococcus pneumoniae is highly diverse, comprising over 100 serotypes and hundreds of genomic lineages amid widespread vaccination. While it can cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) which exhibits pronounced seasonal spikes, the interplay between pneumococcal diversity and environmental drivers remains unexplored. Here we analysed 59,017 IPD cases over 19 years from South Africa, incorporating 4,350 genome-sequenced isolates, using Bayesian spatiotemporal models to link environmental exposure and pneumococcal diversity. Cumulatively, across an 8-week period, moderate relative humidity (33-49%) and cold minimum temperatures (4-10 °C) increased IPD risk by 5% and 4%, respectively. Conversely, warm maximum temperatures (27-38 °C) were associated with up to a 10% increased risk within a week of exposure. There was a positive association between air pollution (PM
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