Climate-Driven Shifts in Wind Energy Potential Across Central Asia Based on a Multi-Model Ensemble and Tier-Based Assessment.

Reliable assessment of future wind energy resources is crucial forsustainable energy planning in Central Asia (CA), where wind patterns arehighly sensitive to climate change. This study assesses historical andprojected 100 m wind speed during 1992-2100 using multi-ensemble outputs fromthe Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under SharedSocioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), bias-corrected using EuropeanCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 reanalysis. We developeda novel ranking framework integrating seasonal variability, Weibull-based windcharacterization, and exceedance probabilities, while accounting for scenariosensitivity. Historically, seasonal wind speeds increased during spring andsummer, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan; however, SSP5-8.5projections indicate widespread declines, especially in fall. Seasonal shiftsalso emerge, with peak wind months moving from spring to winter or summer.These changes produce clear differences in site stability: Kazakhstan hosts∼23% of Tier 1 sites, Kyrgyzstan 〈2%, while Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan aredominated by Tier 5 sites requiring case-specific evaluation. Overall, the results highlight strong spatial contrasts in windenergy potential across CA and provide a robust basis for prioritizinginvestments, reducing climate-related planning uncertainty, and supportingresilient, climate-adaptive wind energy strategies.