Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42728961›Full record

ArticleWellcome open research2025

Forecasting the course of bipolar disorder using rest-activity rhythms: Protocol for a multi-study modelling project.

Greg Murray, Sandipan Ray, Richard Porter, Fatemeh Hadaeghi, Denny Meyer, Maree Choi, Sara Lapsley, Matthew Tennant, Bridgette Thwaites, Ly Nguyen and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Wellcome open research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Greg MurrayCentre for Mental Health and Brain Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7208-5603
Sandipan RayDepartment of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9960-5768
Richard PorterMental Health Clinical Research Unit, University of Otago, Christchurch, Otago, New Zealand.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8695-3966
Fatemeh HadaeghiInstitute of Computational Neuroscience, Universitatsklinikum Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3870-798X
Denny MeyerCentre for Mental Health and Brain Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9902-0858
Maree ChoiCentre for Mental Health and Brain Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Sara LapsleyDepartment of Psychology, Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0008-4474-4649
Matthew TennantMental Health Clinical Research Unit, University of Otago, Christchurch, Otago, New Zealand.
Bridgette ThwaitesMental Health Clinical Research Unit, University of Otago, Christchurch, Otago, New Zealand.
Ly NguyenCentre for Mental Health and Brain Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7801-5577
Hailey TremainCentre for Mental Health and Brain Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
Saibal SahaDepartment of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India.ORCID https://orcid.org/0009-0004-7076-2067
Jan ScottPsychological Medicine, Newcastle University, Newcastle, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7203-8601

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Risk of new episodes is a constant concern for people living with bipolar disorder (BD). Research into sleep and circadian rhythm disruption (SCRD) suggests that relapse risk may be measurable in 24-hour rest-activity rhythms (RAR) via actigraphy. The primary aim of the Tipping Point project is to develop an algorithm forecasting relapse based on RAR. A secondary aim is to explore SCRD mechanisms linking RAR to mood dynamics in BD. The mechanistic investigation involves analysis of biological correlates of RAR, and exploration of system instability as a predictor of two types of state transition (relapse and recovery). Method: Three prospective studies will enrol adults living with BD I or II. Study 1 (Australia) recruits Discussion: The Tipping Point project uses a multi-study design to develop a mechanistically-informed predictive algorithm for relapse risk in BD.

Indexed as

actigraphyactivitybipolar disordercircadianmolecular clockprospectiverelapsesleep

Identifiers

PMID42728961
PMCPMC13560521

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.