ArticleApplied health economics and health policy2026
Evaluating Mongolia's Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
Article in Applied health economics and health policy, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundMongolia has approved a tax of 20% on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) to take effect in 2027, yet while prior work has assessed potential health impacts, no peer-reviewed study has evaluated its cost-effectiveness.
objectiveThis study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of Mongolia's planned SSB tax by estimating its effect on health outcomes, healthcare costs, and changes in SSB consumption patterns.
methodsUsing a Markov cohort model, we project outcomes over 10-year, 20-year and lifetime horizons. The model incorporates changes in the prevalence of overweight and obesity, noncommunicable disease (NCD) incidence, and associated costs, with primary outcomes measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. To improve precision, disease risk estimates are informed by biomarker data, such as blood sugar and lipid levels, minimizing reliance on self-reported health indicators.
resultsThe ad valorem tax of 20% is projected to reduce consumption of SSBs by 31% through consumer price response alone. Accounting for additional calorie reductions from 20% industry reformulation, the combined effective reduction in SSB-related energy intake reaches approximately 45%. Across the three time horizons, the tax could avert 13, 260 and 2255 premature deaths; yield 2899, 14,362 and 33,613 QALYs; and avert US$6.13 million, US$30.34 million and US$71.02 million, respectively, in healthcare costs. From the healthcare perspective, the tax is cost-effective over 10 years (net cost US$1.77 million; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) US$611.99/QALY) and becomes cost-saving within 20 years and over the lifetime horizon.
conclusionsThese findings support the implementation of the SSB tax as a strategy to reduce Mongolia's NCD burden and generate long-term fiscal and health benefits.
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