ArticleOpen research Europe2026
Divergent risk patterns across coastal hospitality sectors in the Northern Adriatic.
Article in Open research Europe, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Coastal hospitality, encompassing both accommodation (hotels, holiday rentals, short-term rental platforms) and service establishments (restaurants, bars, tourism-oriented retail and leisure), along the Northern Adriatic coast exhibits fundamentally different spatial risk patterns across sectors. This study demonstrates this divergence by developing a dual-component Hospitality Risk Index (HRI) applied to 10,022 establishments across 400 km of coastline in Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, combined with fuzzy clustering and H3 hexagonal spatial indexing. The HRI integrates hazard projections (sea-level rise under IPCC scenarios), exposure metrics (elevation, coastal proximity, spatial density), and vulnerability indicators (structural characteristics, economic positioning). Accommodation risk differentiates by hazard geography: converted residential properties concentrated in the Venice lagoon system (HRI = 0.422) score substantially higher than purpose-built coastal hotels (HRI = 0.231), a pattern driven by differential hazard exposure that survives removal of the vulnerability component. Service risk follows a simpler spatial logic, with beachfront establishments showing highest scores (HRI = 0.440) regardless of economic positioning. These sectoral differences manifest as geographically concentrated hotspots, with service risk exhibiting two- to four-fold stronger spatial clustering than accommodation risk. External validation against two coastal flood events (Venice 2019, Emilia-Romagna 2022) confirms that flood-proximate establishments score significantly higher (p < 0.001), with the difference driven by the exposure component. The framework provides a spatial baseline for monitoring vulnerability configurations over time and offers a transferable open-source methodology for comparable Mediterranean coastal destinations.
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