ArticleJournal of gambling studies2026
Online Casino Legalization and Onsite Casino Revenue: Evidence from Early Adopters in the United States.
Article in Journal of gambling studies, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
This paper provides quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of online casino legalization on land-based casino revenues in the United States. Exploiting the concurrent 2013 legalization wave in New Jersey and Delaware, our synthetic difference-in-differences specifications estimate a persistent 13% contraction in land-based revenue. To account for the concurrent expansion of land-based competition in neighboring states, we construct a gravity-weighted measure of out-of-state competitor casino capacity from property-level regulatory data; the estimated contraction is essentially unchanged when this exposure measure is controlled for. A state-specific falsification and mechanism test sharpens the interpretation: the decline is concentrated in New Jersey, where a substantial regulated online market emerged (an 18% contraction, largely unchanged after inclusion of the competition measure and significant under placebo-variance inference), while Delaware, whose online market remained negligible, exhibits no detectable decline under a synthetically weighted counterfactual. We show that the net fiscal effect of legalization depends on the gap between online and land-based tax rates and on the scale of the online market a state can sustain. Finally, drawing on evidence that online gambling revenue is concentrated among heavy and problem gamblers, we discuss how part of the new tax revenue may function as a regressive transfer.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.