Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42711346›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Metabolic predictors of response to immunotherapy in locally advanced or metastatic esophageal cancer: unveiling the obesity paradox.

Jiaqi Tan, Haoyu Zhang, Zhaoyu Pan, Yuhan Chen, Xiaoqiao Cui, Xueying Wang, Gangcai Zhu

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Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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3 · Its place in the literature

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Jiaqi Tan *Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, The People's Republic of China.
Haoyu Zhang *Department of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, The People's Republic of China.
Zhaoyu PanDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Hunan Children's Hospital, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, China.
Yuhan ChenDepartment of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, The People's Republic of China.
Xiaoqiao CuiDepartment of Otorhinolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Harbin Medical University Cancer Hospital, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150081, The People's Republic of China.
Xueying WangDepartment of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, The People's Republic of China.
Gangcai ZhuDepartment of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery, Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha City, 410013, Hunan Province, The People's Republic of China. qianhudoctor@csu.edu.cn.

Funding

Distinguished Young Scholar Foundation of Hunan Province ka2209007National Natural Science Foundation of China 82173341Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province 2023JJ20087Science and Technology Program of Hunan Province 2023RC3082
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionPD-1 inhibitor-based immunotherapy is increasingly used for locally advanced or metastatic esophageal cancer, yet the impact of metabolic factors-including the emerging "obesity paradox", wherein high-body mass index (BMI) patients demonstrate a lower risk of all-cause cancer mortality and superior immunotherapy efficacy compared to those with a low-to-normal BMI-on treatment efficacy remains largely unknown. Patients were stratified by BMI and metabolic syndrome (MetS) to assess survival and treatment response; a prognostic nomogram was subsequently developed via LASSO and multivariable Cox regression and validated internally and externally using the respective institutional cohorts. A total of 286 eligible patients with locally advanced or metastatic esophageal cancer from two medical centers were included. Patients with high BMI or MetS demonstrated significantly superior overall survival, progression-free survival, and objective response rates to anti-PD-1 therapy. These groups exhibited favorable immune profiles, characterized by a lower pan-immune inflammation value (PIV) and a higher combined positive score (CPS). A prognostic nomogram was successfully constructed and validated, incorporating four independent predictors: gender, BMI, TNM stage, and PIV. The model demonstrated high predictive accuracy for 24- and 36-month overall survival in both internal and external validation cohorts, with well-fitted calibration curves. Elevated BMI serves as an independent predictor of improved outcomes following immunotherapy in locally advanced or metastatic esophageal cancer, whereas the prognostic trend of MetS appears largely dependent on body mass. Furthermore, our validated nomogram integrates these nutritional and metabolic profiles to enable refined prognostic assessment.

Indexed as

Esophageal NeoplasmsImmunotherapyObesityAgedBody Mass IndexFemaleHumansMaleMetabolic SyndromeMiddle AgedNeoplasm MetastasisNomogramsObesity ParadoxPrognosisTreatment OutcomeImmunotherapyLocally advanced or metastatic esophageal cancerNomogramObesityPrognosis

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.