ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2026
Global, regional, and national prevalence of second-hand smoke and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2023: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023.
Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundSecond-hand smoke (SHS) exposure remains a major source of morbidity and mortality among non-smokers. This study presents the first dedicated Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) publication to systematically quantify SHS prevalence and evaluate its effect as a global risk factor across a broader range of outcomes.
methodsUsing the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework, we estimated SHS exposure prevalence and attributable disease burden across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, stratified by age and sex. Exposure estimates were derived by synthesising population-based surveys and household composition data through spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks for nine health outcomes, now including asthma, were estimated using the Burden of Proof methodology, and applied to calculate attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs).
findingsIn 2023, an estimated 2·71 billion (95% UI 2·44-3·02) people worldwide were exposed to SHS, including 767 million (687-858) children aged 0-14 years. Age-standardised prevalence was highest in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (48·4% [44·0-53·4]), with female individuals in some countries experiencing nearly 1·8 times the exposure prevalence of male individuals. Despite a 22·2% (10·6-32·4) decline in global age-standardised prevalence since 1990, this progress has not been sufficient to reduce the absolute number of exposed individuals, which has remained stable globally and has risen sharply in sub-Saharan Africa (98·5% [62·0-144·4] increase) and North Africa and the Middle East (72·1% [47·8-101·8] increase). In 2023, SHS exposure accounted for 1·66 million (1·33-2·07) deaths and 44·8 million (35·8-54·3) DALYs globally. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading contributor to SHS-attributable DALYs (12·0 million [9·31-15·2]) overall, while lower respiratory infections predominated among children (5·16 million [3·48-7·12]).
interpretationWe estimated that SHS remains a substantial driver of global health loss, particularly through cardiovascular and paediatric respiratory diseases. Persistent geographical disparities and growing absolute numbers of exposed individuals in several regions underscore the urgent need for accelerated implementation and enforcement of comprehensive tobacco control measures, particularly to protect women and children in both public and domestic environments.
fundingBloomberg Philanthropies and the Gates Foundation.
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