ArticleOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)2026
Climatic drivers of the 2024 malaria outbreak in two neighbouring districts in northeastern India and its corridor: The indirect role of El Niño.
Article in One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Despite the progress made, malaria continues to impose a major global and regional burden. India contributes to almost half of the malaria cases in South-East Asia. In 2024, an unusual increase in malaria cases was observed in Alipurduar and neighbouring Kokrajhar district in Northeast India; regions that had maintained an API below 1 for several years. Thus, understanding the climatic and environmental factors of this outbreak is critical for early detection and prevention. Methods: Monthly epidemiological data on confirmed malaria cases in both districts were analysed from 2018 to 2024 along with meteorological variables and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. Multiple Poisson regression models incorporating lagged climatic parameters were developed separately and assessed using the RMSE for out-of-sample prediction performance. Results: The marked increase in malaria cases observed between August and December 2024 in both districts was primarily driven by Conclusion: The lagged temperature increase associated with El Niño-driven climatic anomalies exerted a strong influence on the 2024 malaria outbreaks in Alipurduar and Kokrajhar. These results emphasise the role of integrating ENSO-based forecasting within malaria in early-warning systems. Early, climate-informed surveillance and planning for vector control would prevent localized resurgence and sustain malaria elimination gains, especially in low-API districts.
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