ArticleCancer medicine2026
Construction and Validation of a Progression-Free Survival Prediction Model for Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Patients With 1q21 Gain/Amplification.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveTo investigate the clinical characteristics of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) patients with 1q21 gain/amplification (1q21+), construct and validate a progression-free survival (PFS) prediction model, and explore the clinical implications of model-based risk stratification.
methodsWe retrospectively analyzed 186 newly diagnosed multiple myeloma patients with 1q21+ treated between 2018 and 2024. Patients were randomly assigned at a 7:3 ratio to a training cohort (n = 131) and an internal split-sample validation cohort (n = 55). Independent prognostic factors for PFS were identified using multivariate Cox regression to construct a nomogram (the HLBP model). Model performance was evaluated through bootstrap resampling, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Furthermore, the model's predictive accuracy was compared with conventional staging systems and established prognostic models. Finally, risk-stratified exploratory analyses were conducted to assess treatment-associated outcomes across different risk groups.
resultsHigher hemoglobin was protective, whereas elevated lactate dehydrogenase, increased β2-microglobulin, and TP53 deletion were adverse prognostic factors. The HLBP model yielded AUCs of 0.805, 0.885, and 0.847 at 6, 12, and 24 months in the training cohort, and 0.747, 0.827, and 0.712 in the internal split-sample validation cohort. Patients stratified into high- and low-risk groups showed significantly different PFS outcomes. Risk-stratified analyses suggested heterogeneous prognostic patterns associated with induction treatment regimens and autologous stem cell transplantation across risk groups. Overall, the HLBP model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared with existing staging systems and previously reported prognostic models.
conclusionThe HLBP model showed promising preliminary performance for predicting PFS in patients with 1q21+ NDMM and may provide an exploratory framework for individualized risk stratification.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.