ArticleAnnals of medicine2026
A screening-threshold-oriented framework reveals threshold-adjacent redistribution of global colorectal cancer burden: an analysis of GBD 2023.
Article in Annals of medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundConventional age <50 versus ≥50 years grouping may obscure colorectal cancer (CRC) burden patterns around the contemporary screening boundary. We examined whether adults aged 45-49 years occupy a threshold-adjacent position not captured by conventional grouping.
methodsUsing GBD 2023 data, we analyzed CRC incidence, deaths, and DALYs from 1990 to 2023 across four age groups (15-44, 45-49, 50-74, 75+ years). We assessed global and SDI-stratified trends, inequality, empirical lower-bound burden frontiers, and decomposition of burden change. Sensitivity analyses included conventional age regrouping, High versus Non-High SDI decomposition, split-period analyses, and adjacent 5-year age-group comparisons.
resultsIncidence rose most in adults aged 15-44 (+16.8%) and 45-49 years (+11.0%), with smaller increases in those aged 50-74 (+7.5%) and 75+ (+3.6%). Deaths and DALYs declined more clearly above age 50. In adults aged 45-49, incidence inequality remained positive but narrowed (CI: 0.304 to 0.253; relative SII: 1.693 to 1.412), while DALY inequality weakened (CI: 0.159 to 0.068). During 2010-2023, the residual rate-change component contributed positively to incidence in adults aged 45-49 globally (31.5%) but was slightly negative in those aged 50-74 (-2.6%). Post-2018 amplification in High-SDI populations was consistent with screening-related detection effects.
conclusionsAdults aged 45-49 occupy a context-dependent threshold-adjacent position in global CRC burden redistribution. These findings inform population-level surveillance and policy evaluation rather than individual-level clinical decision-making.
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