ArticleClinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico2026
Prognostic modeling of overall survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer: an inflammation-based tool validated in PANTHEIA-SEOM cohort.
Article in Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
purposeTo develop and internally validate the PANTHEIA-SIRI prognostic model, which integrates log-transformed systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) with clinical predictors, to estimate overall survival (OS) in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) treated with first-line chemotherapy.
methodsWe used data from the multicenter PANTHEIA-SEOM registry. OS was defined from chemotherapy start. The model was fitted as a Weibull accelerated failure time model in the survival-analysis population with multiple imputation. Predictors were log-transformed baseline SIRI, modeled with restricted cubic splines, ECOG, tumor burden, chemotherapy regimen, and anorexia-cachexia syndrome. Internal validation used a separate, non-overlapping cohort from the same registry; the centers contributing to each cohort are listed in a supplementary annex. TRIPOD was followed. Discrimination was assessed with Harrell´s C-index and calibration with IPCW Brier scores and IPA.
resultsThe derivation cohort comprised 672 patients with SIRI data (593 analyzed for survival) across 22 Spanish hospitals (2015-2025); 80.1% had died after a median OS of 9.9 months. The imputation-pooled derivation C-index was 0.654 (95% CI, 0.627-0.681); optimism-corrected, 0.629. Internal validation used 62 separate patients from the same registry; 96.8% had died after a median OS of 9.2 months. The validation C-index was 0.603 (95% CI, 0.518-0.687). Calibration was adequate at 6 and 12 months.
conclusionsThe PANTHEIA-SIRI model provides individualized OS estimates in mPDAC with routine clinical predictors. Its open-access calculator ( https://pantheia-siri.shinyapps.io/calc/ ) may support prognostic communication, treatment-intensity selection, and supportive-care planning. Routine clinical implementation will require further validation in larger, fully independent cohorts.
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