Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change.

Climate change is reshaping marine fish habitats. Yet the future habitats' redistribution of fishes that are both critically endangered (CR) and globally commercially exploited remains poorly understood. Here, we assessed current and future suitable habitats for 24 CR commercial coastal demersal fishes selected on the IUCN Red List. Using ensemble species distribution models (SDMs), we projected habitat suitability under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 by the 2100 s, and combined the projections with exclusive economic zones (EEZs), marine protected areas (MPAs), and fishing pressure. Most species were projected to experience net habitat contraction by the 2100 s, with stronger losses under SSP5-8.5 and pronounced declines in tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Across 145 coastal EEZs, projected species richness showed marked spatial heterogeneity, with Asia retaining the highest mean richness and Europe showing a net increase. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries supported substantial current species richness but faced stronger relative declines under SSP5-8.5. Projected habitats of CR commercial fishes intersected MPAs in only 49% of coastal countries, indicating substantial protection gaps. Overall, this study quantitatively delineates climate-driven habitat redistribution patterns of CR commercial fishes, suggesting potential implications for optimizing MPAs networks and advancing transboundary conservation strategies to promote marine biodiversity and sustainable fisheries development.