ArticleBMJ public health2026
Impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on dental caries, periodontitis and edentulism in Australia: a modelling study.
Article in BMJ public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Introduction: Oral diseases are a growing public health challenge affecting approximately 3.5 billion people globally. Nearly 32% of Australian adults aged 15 and above have untreated dental caries. Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a significant contributor to oral diseases such as dental caries, periodontitis and edentulism. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of implementing a 20% tax on SSBs on the burden of oral disease in Australia. Methods: A prior proportional multistate lifetable model of the 2019 Australian adult population was used. We added dental caries, periodontitis and edentulism to the model in addition to 31 non-oral health conditions to deal with competing risks. Age-specific and sex-specific mean estimates for incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability and the 2019 Australian adult population data estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study were used. Results: A 20% SSB tax is projected to add 511 thousand (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 425 to 602 thousand) health-adjusted life-years (HALYs) for the 2019 Australian population over their lifetime, of which around 24% is due to oral diseases. A total of 3.7 million (95% UI 2.3 to 5.2 million) incident cases of dental caries and 191 thousand (95% UI 147 to 237 thousand) incident cases of periodontitis would be avoided. The incidence of edentulism via dental caries would reduce by 76 thousand (95% UI 48 to 106 thousand) and edentulism via periodontitis would reduce by 39 thousand (95% UI 30 to 48 thousand) total cases. HALY results are sensitive to the degree of quality-of-life loss associated with caries and periodontitis. Conclusions: A 20% SSB tax is projected to generate substantial health gains and reduce the burden of oral diseases in Australia under the assumptions of this modelling study. This is the first study to quantify the avoidable burden of periodontitis and edentulism in addition to dental caries.
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