Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42687019›Full record

ArticleNature aging2026

Reframing the epidemiological transition as increasing returns to tackling aging-related diseases.

Julian Ashwin, David E Bloom, Naomi Lee, Peter Piot, Andrew J Scott

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature aging, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Julian AshwinDepartment of Economics, Maastricht University, Maastricht, the Netherlands.
David E BloomDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H.Chan School of Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3731-3345
Naomi LeeEllison Institute of Technology, Oxford, UK.
Peter PiotDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Andrew J ScottCentre for Economic Policy Research, Paris, France. ascott@london.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7785-1263

Funding

RCUK | Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) T002204
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Global life expectancy has risen since 1973 from 58 to over 73 years, while the share of people aged 65 years and older has doubled to 10% and is projected to reach 21% by 2073. This shift is linked to an epidemiological transition from infectious to chronic disease. Here, using Global Burden of Disease data, we reframe this transition by statistically grouping diseases on the basis of their impact over the life cycle, yielding four clusters: infant, early-adult, later-adult and aging-related. We show aging-related diseases are the largest part of the current global disease burden and the greatest lifetime burden for a newborn, even in low-income countries. Aging-related diseases possess two distinctive properties: a tight link between mortality and morbidity, and increasing returns, whereby reductions in their prevalence makes further gains even more attractive. The implications of this recasting of the epidemiological transition for health systems and aging research are discussed.

Indexed as

AgingLife ExpectancyAgedChronic DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansInfant, NewbornPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID42687019
PMCPMC13577912

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.