ArticleTropical medicine and health2026
Trends in the burden of fire, heat, and hot substances in North Africa and the Middle East, 1990-2023: an analysis of the 2023 Global Burden of Disease Study.
Article in Tropical medicine and health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThermal injuries from fire, heat, and hot substances (FHHS) pose a significant public health challenge in North Africa and the Middle East (NAME). Comprehensive, long-term regional analyses, particularly those including the post-pandemic period, are limited. This study leverages Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 data to provide a comprehensive assessment of the FHHS burden in the NAME region from 1990 to 2023, analyzing the distinct effects of age, period, and cohort to inform targeted interventions.
methodsThis study utilized FHHS data from the GBD 2023 for the 21 countries and territories of the NAME region. We analyzed trends in prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The analysis employed joinpoint regression to identify temporal trend changes, decomposition analysis to isolate the effects of population growth, aging, and epidemiology, and an age-period-cohort model to delineate generational and age-specific risks.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2023, the age-standardized DALY rate for FHHS in NAME declined significantly (EAPC, - 2.6). Absolute prevalence increased in most countries, with increases exceeding 300% in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Joinpoint analysis identified an increase in ASIR during 2020-2023 (APC, 0.61%). Decomposition showed that population growth and ageing exerted upward pressure on absolute counts. For deaths, however, these positive demographic contributions were more than offset by favorable changes in age-specific epidemiological rates, resulting in a small net regional decline.
conclusionFrom 1990 to 2023, NAME achieved substantial reductions in age-standardized DALY and death rates from FHHS. Population growth and ageing increased pressure on absolute prevalence and incidence, whereas improved age-specific epidemiological rates outweighed these pressures for deaths. The recent change in ASIR and the increasing burden in older age groups warrant continued surveillance and targeted prevention.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.