Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42668278›Full record

ArticlePediatric research2026

Development of a machine-learning risk stratification tool for vasoactive medication need after two-bolus fluid resuscitation in pediatric suspected sepsis.

Tom Velez, Oluwakemi Badaki-Makun, Danielle Claire Mercurio, Danielle Hirsch, Holly Depinet, Maya Dewan, Rishikesan Kamaleswaran, Jocelyn Grunwell, Tyrus Vong, Cody Cross and 5 more

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Article in Pediatric research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Tom VelezComputer Technology Associates, Cardiff, CA, USA.
Oluwakemi Badaki-MakunDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Danielle Claire MercurioDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St, Petersburg, FL, USA.
Danielle HirschDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital, St, Petersburg, FL, USA.
Holly DepinetDivision of Emergency Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Maya DewanDepartment of Pediatrics, Division of Critical Care Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Rishikesan KamaleswaranDepartment of Surgery, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC, USA.
Jocelyn GrunwellDepartment of Pediatrics, Division of Critical Care Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Tyrus VongDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Cody CrossDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Maria TriantafyllouChildren's National Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Nora WolffChildren's National Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Fehima AbdelrahmanChildren's National Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
Charles MaciasDivision of Pediatric Emergency Medicine, University Hospitals Rainbow Babies and Children's Hospital, and Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Ioannis KoutroulisChildren's National Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA. ikoutroulis@gwu.edu.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTimely vasopressor initiation is critical in fluid-refractory pediatric septic shock, yet clinicians lack objective tools to identify children requiring early hemodynamic escalation after fluid resuscitation.

methodsWe performed a retrospective multicenter study using electronic health record data from five pediatric emergency departments (March 2022-February 2025). Children aged 3 months-17 years screened for sepsis who received ≥2 fluid boluses and were vasopressor-naïve at the second bolus were included. The analytic cohort required abnormal age-adjusted vital signs before the first bolus and documented vital signs after the second bolus. Eight predictors were selected from 41 candidate variables via recursive feature elimination to develop a model predicting subsequent vasopressor administration. A super learner framework evaluated 13 algorithms.

resultsAmong 645 eligible patients, 341 met analytic criteria and 88 (25.8%) received vasopressors. Random Forest demonstrated optimal performance (AUROC 0.827 [95% CI 0.777-0.876], AUPRC 0.661). Post-second-bolus mean arterial pressure and baseline MAP severity were the strongest predictors, while blood urea nitrogen was the only retained laboratory variable. Four risk tiers showed vasopressor rates ranging from 6.6% to 63.6%.

conclusionMachine learning accurately identified children at risk for fluid-refractory septic shock and may support timely vasopressor initiation. IMPACT: A machine-learning model using eight routinely available clinical variables accurately predicts vasoactive medication need after two fluid boluses in pediatric suspected sepsis. The model stratifies patients into four calibrated risk tiers with a 9.6-fold gradient in vasoactive medication rates, identifying children at risk for fluid-refractory septic shock. This work addresses a critical clinical decision point, whether to continue fluids or escalate to vasoactive medications, where current guidelines offer limited objective guidance. The tool has potential to support earlier recognition of fluid-refractory shock and optimize resuscitation strategies in pediatric emergency care.

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.