Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42667052›Full record

ArticlePopulation and development review2026

Structured Inequality, Uncertain Lifespans: Demographic Perspectives on Predicting Individual-Level Longevity.

Casey F Breen, Nathan Seltzer

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Population and development review, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Casey F BreenDepartment of Sociology, Population Research Center, and Center for Aging and Population Sciences, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3702-4746
Nathan SeltzerDepartment of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6916-2441

Funding

Program Development and Pilot CoreP30AG066614 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI DEBRA J. UMBERSON · 2020 to 2026
$5.2M
Scientific & Technical CoreP2CHD042849 · NICHD · UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN · PI MARK D. HAYWARD · 2017 to 2026
$5.2M
TRAINING IN THE DEMOGRAPHY AND ECONOMICS OF AGINGT32AG000246 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI JOSHUA R. GOLDSTEIN · 1995 to 2026
$4.6M
CenSoc: A New, Public, Individual-level Dataset for Studying Mortality InequalityR01AG058940 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI GOLDSTEIN, JOSHUA R. · 2019 to 2023
$2.9M
Minority Predoctoral Fellowship ProgramF31AG005894 · NIA · CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA · PI CHAVEZ, S C · 2001 to 2003
$80k
NIA NIH HHS F31 AG005894NIA NIH HHS P30 AG066614NIA NIH HHS R01 AG058940NIA NIH HHS T32 AG000246NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD042849
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

There are striking disparities in life expectancy across sociodemographic groups in the United States, shaped by structural forces such as racism, class inequality, and policy environments. To what extent do sociodemographic characteristics structure-or fail to structure-individual lifespans? Using U.S. Census data linked to administrative death records, we assess how well early-adulthood social, economic, and demographic characteristics predict individual lifespan in a cohort of men born in 1910 and observed through their deaths between 1975 and 2005 (N = 121,000). Despite large group-level disparities, we find that sociodemographic characteristics measured in early adulthood explain less than two percent of the overall variation in individual lifespan. These findings reaffirm a central demographic regularity: variance in life expectancy between groups is small compared to variation in lifespan within groups. This highlights the fundamentally nondeterministic nature of how structural inequality shapes individual mortality.

Identifiers

PMID42667052
PMCPMC13524427

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.