ArticleLower urinary tract symptoms2026
Efficacy of Vibegron in Overactive Bladder: A Bayesian Cross-Trial Synthesis of Benefit Probabilities and Decision Thresholds.
Article in Lower urinary tract symptoms, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
objectivesTo synthesize published placebo-controlled trials of vibegron monotherapy for overactive bladder (OAB) and quantify posterior probabilities of benefit and decision-threshold exceedance.
methodsWe extracted published placebo-adjusted least-squares mean differences at Week 12 from three randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase III trials evaluating vibegron monotherapy (Japan Phase III trial, Korea bridging study [50 mg], and EMPOWUR trial [75 mg]) for four voiding-diary endpoints: micturitions/day, urgency episodes/day, urgency urinary incontinence (UUI) episodes/day, and voided volume (mL). For each endpoint, a Bayesian normal-normal random-effects model estimated the pooled mean effect and between-trial heterogeneity and calculated posterior probabilities of benefit and of exceeding thresholds predefined in this analysis.
resultsPooled mean effects (95% credible intervals) favored vibegron across all four voiding-diary endpoints: micturitions/day (-0.76, -1.33 to -0.28), urgency episodes/day (-0.69, -1.35 to -0.22), UUI episodes/day (-0.44, -0.93 to -0.03), and voided volume (+24.09 mL, 15.78-32.51). The posterior probabilities of benefit were 99.5%, 99.3%, 98.0%, and > 99.9%, respectively. The probabilities of exceeding thresholds were as follows: for micturitions/day, ≤ -0.5: 90.3% and ≤ -1.0: 14.2%; for urgency episodes/day, ≤ -0.5: 82.8% and ≤ -1.0: 12.7%; for UUI episodes/day, ≤ -0.3: 81.8% and ≤ -0.5: 35.4%; and for voided volume, ≥ +10 mL: 99.5%, ≥ +20 mL: 88.4%, and ≥ +30 mL: 5.8%.
conclusionsBayesian cross-trial synthesis demonstrates a high probability that vibegron improves key OAB voiding-diary outcomes at Week 12. By explicitly quantifying the probability of exceeding clinically interpretable decision thresholds, this approach provides a transparent assessment of both the direction and magnitude of treatment effects, facilitating clinically interpretable decision-making.
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