ArticleFrontiers in psychology2026
The psychological mechanism of basic public service provision affecting population urbanization in China: a moderated mediation model based on migrants' settlement intention.
Article in Frontiers in psychology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: The influence of social welfare and psychological factors is becoming increasingly prominent in China's people-oriented new-type urbanization. However, how macro-level public service provision translates into urbanization outcomes through psychological mechanisms remains poorly understood. Materials and methods: This study introduces migrants' settlement intention (MSI), a psychological construct capturing expectations, social belonging, and future-oriented decisions, as a mediator between basic public service provision (BPSP) and population urbanization (PU) in China. Using panel data from 291 Chinese prefectural cities and the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (2014-2018), this study employs a moderated mediation model to examine how BPSP affects PU through MSI. Results: Findings indicate that MSI partially and positively mediates the BPSP-PU relationship after overcoming the endogeneity issues, with significant and positive paths from BPSP to MSI ( Conclusion: By identifying MSI as a forward-looking psychological conduit, this study advances a psychological account of urbanization and underscores the value of integrating urban psychology with public policy to foster sustainable, human-centered urban development.
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