ArticlePathogens (Basel, Switzerland)2026
Epidemiological Trends, Statistical Correlations, and Forecasting of Notifiable Infectious Diseases in South Korea, 2001-2024: A Regression and Time Series Analysis with Projections to 2028.
Article in Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundNotifiable infectious diseases impose a substantial, evolving burden on public health systems. This study characterized long-term epidemiological trends, inter-class associations, and age-stratified patterns of notifiable infectious diseases in South Korea and projected future burden through 2028.
methodsWe analyzed aggregate national surveillance data (2001-2024) from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) via the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). Because the statutory classification changed in 2020 from a four-group (Class 1-4, gun) to a four-grade (geup) system, all inferential trend, correlation, and forecasting analyses were restricted to the internally consistent 2001-2019 group-system period, and 2020-2024 grade-system data were used descriptively. Secular trends were estimated with ordinary least squares and, for count-specific inference, negative-binomial log-linear models (annual percent change, APC); residual autocorrelation was assessed (Durbin-Watson, Ljung-Box). Structural breaks were estimated objectively (Bai-Perron least-squares). Inter-class associations were tested with Pearson/Spearman correlations and re-evaluated with partial correlation (controlling for calendar year) and first-difference detrending to guard against spurious co-trending. Forecasts used a random-walk ARIMA (identified by ADF stationarity testing, ACF/PACF, and AICc) and a damped Holt-Winters model on the H1N1-adjusted series, combined into an ensemble; performance was validated by rolling-origin cross-validation (RMSE, MAE, MAPE).
resultsAfter handling the 2009 H1N1 pandemic outlier, total notifications rose significantly over 2001-2019 (slope = 8344 cases/year; 95% CI 6603-10,084; R
conclusionsSouth Korean notifiable-disease epidemiology was dominated by a genuine upward Class 2 respiratory trend; several previously reported inter-class correlations were attributable to common temporal trends rather than shared transmission. Post-COVID normalization monitoring and respiratory-disease surveillance investment are priority actions.
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