Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42649664›Full record

ReviewEntropy (Basel, Switzerland)2026

Everything Is Prediction: Modern Machine Learning as Bayesian Inference.

Nicholas G Polson, Vadim Sokolov, Refik Soyer

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Entropy (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Nicholas G PolsonBooth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Vadim SokolovDepartment of Systems Engineering and Operations Research, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6618-2965
Refik SoyerDepartment of Decision Sciences, School of Business, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7854-7837

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We argue that the core methods of modern machine learning-conformal prediction, large language models and in-context learning, and generative/diffusion models-are not rivals to Bayesian inference but implementations of it, almost always of its

Indexed as

Bregman divergenceconformal predictiondiffusion modelsentropyexchangeabilitygenerative Bayesian computationin-context learningmartingale posteriorsmaximum-entropy reinforcement learningpredictive inferenceproper scoring rulestwo cultures

Identifiers

PMID42649664
PMCPMC13511990

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.