ArticleJournal of cardiovascular development and disease2026
The Limits of Comorbidity Indices in TAVI: How Aggregation Dilutes the Prognostic Power of Individual Biomarkers.
Article in Journal of cardiovascular development and disease, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectiveHeart-team decisions in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) lean on EuroSCORE II, yet the comorbidity burden that often drives the final choice is rarely scored. We tested a specific two-part hypothesis: whether formally quantifying comorbidity burden (via the Charlson Comorbidity Index [CCI] and a modified CCI [mCCI]) recovers prognostic value beyond EuroSCORE II for Valve Academic Research Consortium-3 (VARC-3) outcomes, and whether aggregating comorbidities preserves or dilutes the prognostic signal of individually informative predictors.
methodsIn 234 consecutive patients (mean age 76.6 ± 6.1 years) undergoing TAVI for severe aortic stenosis, EuroSCORE II, CCI, and mCCI were computed before the procedure. The primary endpoint was the 30-day VARC-3 composite; secondary endpoints were individual VARC-3 outcomes and one-year mortality. We compared discrimination (AUC, DeLong test) and incremental value with bootstrapping, and analyzed survival by Kaplan-Meier/Cox regression.
resultsAll three scores discriminated the 30-day composite (63 patients, 26.9%) poorly (AUCs 0.50-0.54), collapsing to chance after correction; neither comorbidity index improved on EuroSCORE II (all
conclusionsIn elderly TAVI, the actionable prognostic information resided in individual markers of organ reserve-serum albumin and chronic kidney disease-that count-based comorbidity aggregation dissipated rather than concentrated. EuroSCORE II retained a focused, mechanistically coherent association with stage 3 AKI, reflecting its renal components. These findings support a shift from disease-counting toward direct measurement of organ reserve and frailty in TAVI risk assessment, and the development of TAVI-specific tools that preserve dominant individual predictors rather than averaging them into a single score.
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