ArticleCurrent oncology (Toronto, Ont.)2026
Shifting Cancer Landscapes in Korea: Divergent Incidence Trajectories, Sex-Specific Burdens, and Projected Case Counts for 24 Major Cancer Types from 1999 to 2023, with Forecasts to 2030.
Article in Current oncology (Toronto, Ont.), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND/
objectivesKorea has experienced rapid and heterogeneous shifts in cancer epidemiology since 1999. We aimed to characterize divergent incidence trajectories across the 24 major cancer types, quantify sex-specific burdens, and project case counts through 2030.
methodsAnnual incidence data-including new case counts and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100,000 (2020 Korean standard population) stratified by sex-were extracted from the KCCR via the Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) for 1999-2023. Annual percent change (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Holt-Winters damped exponential smoothing generated 2024-2030 projections with 95% prediction intervals (PIs). Changes in case ascertainment and coding over the study period were considered in interpretation.
resultsTotal incidence increased from 101,854 (1999) to 288,613 cases (2023), a 183.4% increase. Overall ASIR rose from 402.7 to 522.9 per 100,000. Of the 24 cancer types, 15 showed statistically significant increasing ASIR trends, 6 showed significant decreasing trends, and 3 showed no significant change. The highest-APC cancers were thyroid (+7.56%), prostate (+6.98%), testis (+5.39%), breast (+5.03%), and corpus uteri (+5.03%; all
conclusionsKorean cancer epidemiology is undergoing a pronounced transition from infection-related toward metabolic, hormonal, and aging-related malignancies, with a marked and widening sex-specific divergence. Cancer-type-resolved projections through 2030 provide an evidence base for strategic capacity planning in Korean oncology.
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