Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42642536›Full record

ArticleAnnals of surgical oncology2026

Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Overall Survival and Recurrence After Upfront Pancreatic Resection for Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Single-Institution Analysis of 2958 Patients.

Guoxiao Zhang, Xiaohan Shi, Zhiwen Wang, Lin Xiao, Shuai Yuan, Gang Jin, Shiwei Guo

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Article in Annals of surgical oncology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Guoxiao Zhang *Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Xiaohan Shi *Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Zhiwen Wang *Department of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Lin XiaoDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Shuai YuanDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China.
Gang JinDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China. jingang@smmu.edu.cn.
Shiwei GuoDepartment of Hepatobiliary Pancreatic Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University, Shanghai, China. guoshiwei@smmu.edu.cn.

Funding

Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases-National Science and Technology Major Project Grant No. 2025ZD0552300
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundReliable prediction of overall survival and recurrence after resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) remains a critical unmet need. MATERIALS AND

methodsDual nomograms for overall survival (OS) and recurrence were constructed using backward stepwise selection, validated with bootstrap resampling (500 iterations) and a 7:3 training-validation split. Risk stratification was performed using X-tile-optimized cutpoints.

resultsThe median OS was 22.4 months, and the 5-year survival rate was 18.0%. The OS nomogram (10 predictors) achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.780 in the validation set. The recurrence nomogram (8 predictors) achieved an AUC of 0.732 in the validation set. Both models demonstrated excellent calibration and clinical utility. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status and adjuvant chemotherapy were the strongest predictors for both endpoints. Peripancreatic fat infiltration was a particularly strong driver of recurrence (OR 2.19). Risk stratification classified patients into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups with significantly different outcomes (P < 0.001).

conclusionsThe proposed dual nomograms provide individualized prediction of OS and recurrence risk with robust discrimination and calibration. These tools may assist clinicians in risk stratification and postoperative surveillance planning.

Indexed as

Ductal adenocarcinomaPancreatic cancerPrognostic nomogramRecurrenceRisk stratification

Identifiers

PMID42642536

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