Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42637997›Full record

ArticleClinical rheumatology2026

Global burden of osteoarthritis attributable to high body mass index (1990-2021): rising trends with marked sex-age disparities and prediction to 2050.

Changjing Hu, Xuehong Dong, Fan Yang, Xinyu Liu, Yuan Zhang, Zikang Xu, Lan Sun, Qingxia Li, Jinyang Shen, Yue Zhou

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Article in Clinical rheumatology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Changjing Hu *Department of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Xuehong Dong *Department of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Fan YangDepartment of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Xinyu LiuDepartment of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Yuan ZhangDepartment of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Zikang XuDepartment of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China.
Lan SunJiangsu Food and Pharmaceutical Science College, No. 4 Meicheng Road, Higher Education Park, Huai'an, Jiangsu, China.
Qingxia LiChia Tai Tianqing Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd., No. 369 South Yuzhou Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, Jiangsu, China.
Jinyang ShenDepartment of Pharmacy, Jiangsu Ocean University, 59 Cangwu Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222000, Jiangsu, China. shenjy@jou.edu.cn.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0469-181X
Yue ZhouDepartment of Pharmacy, Lianyungang Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, No. 160, Chaoyang Middle Road, Haizhou District, Lianyungang, 222004, Jiangsu, China. zhouy367@outlook.com.

Funding

2026 Jiangsu Provincial Traditional Chinese Medicine and Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine Research Project PDJH2026052Jiangsu Province Chinese Medicine Science and Technology Development Program Project Face-up Project MS2023178Lianyungang Traditional Chinese Medicine science and technology project LZYZD202403Natural Science Foundation Projects of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine in 2024 XZR2024226
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo quantify the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) associated with high body mass index (BMI) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021, and to predict the possible trends between 2022 and 2050.

methodsThe prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of OA were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2021. This study analyzed global, regional, and national data, systematically assessing the burden of OA associated with BMI by age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and sex. The forecasts were conducted to predict the disease burden until 2050.

resultsIn 2021, the global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of OA prevalence and DALYs increased to 6967.29 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 6180.70-7686.06] and 244.50 (95% UI, 117.06-493.11) per 100,000 population, respectively, demonstrating a consistent upward trend over the years. DALYs rate attributable to high BMI were higher in females than in males, with both sexes experiencing the highest burden between the ages of 55 to 59-418,154 for females and 258,052 for males. Females were generally more sensitive to OA associated with high BMI than males across all regions. Additionally, countries with a high SDI bore a significantly greater burden of OA caused by high BMI compared to countries with a low SDI. The prediction results show that OA attributable to high BMI will maintain a continuous increasing long-term trend, with significant gender differences.

conclusionsIn summary, the DALYs of OA associated with high BMI showed a continuous upward trend in most countries. Females and older adults were more susceptible to OA attributed to high BMI. Controlling modifiable risk factors, such as maintaining an appropriate BMI, was essential for disease prevention. Key Points • Our key results revealed a clear upward trend in OA burden associated with high BMI: in 2021, the global age-standardized rates (ASRs) of OA prevalence and DALYs reached 6967.29 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 6180.70-7686.06] and 244.50 (95% UI, 117.06-493.11) per 100,000 population, respectively. • Stratified analyses further identified critical disparities: DALYs attributable to high BMI were consistently higher in females than males, with both sexes facing the greatest burden between 55 and 59 years of age (418,154 DALYs for females and 258,052 for males). Females also exhibited greater sensitivity to OA associated with high BMI across all regions. • From 1990 to 2021, among the 21 GBD regions, East Asia showed the largest increase in rank (from 17 to 12th highest), while Central Europe showed the largest decrease in rank (from 11 to 14th highest). Additionally, countries with a high SDI carried a significantly heavier burden of high BMI-related OA compared to low-SDI countries. • The prediction results shown that OA attributable to high BMI still maintained a continuous increasing long-term trend, with significant gender differences.

Indexed as

Body Mass IndexObesityOsteoarthritisAdultAgedAge FactorsDisability-Adjusted Life YearsFemaleGlobal Burden of DiseaseGlobal HealthHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrevalenceSex FactorsAge-sex disparitiesGBDHigh body mass indexOsteoarthritis burdenSocio-demographic indexTemporal trends

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.