ArticleInternational journal of public health2026
Divergent trends in Alzheimer's disease burden: a comparative analysis of the US and G20 nations.
Article in International journal of public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) impose growing systemic stress. This study compared epidemiological trends and risk factors between the US and G20 to guide resource allocation. Methods: Using GBD 2023 data, we analyzed incidence, mortality, and DALY rates with Joinpoint regression (1990-2023) and ARIMA forecasting (to 2040). Results: In 2023, US age-standardized incidence rate was 130 (95% CI: 110.5-147.3), mortality rate 30 (7.4-73.2), and DALY rate 510 (224.8-1059.6), all declining from 1990. G20 rates remained lower but showed an upward inflection after 2020. Joinpoint analysis revealed overall downward trends, with a transient US resurgence (1998-2004); projections suggest continued deceleration. Smoking and high fasting plasma glucose burdens in the US were disproportionately elevated compared to G20. Conclusion: The US achieved morbidity compression yet faced rising absolute caseloads due to demographic momentum. G20's post-2020 upturn signals an emerging burden. A shift from smoking to metabolic drivers necessitates primary prevention for G20 and targeted metabolic management for the US.
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