ArticleScience advances2026
Coupled Atlantic atmosphere-ocean variability modulates cutaneous leishmaniasis in North Africa, enabling long-lead seasonal forecasts.
Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Early warning systems for climate-driven diseases require predictors with sufficient lead time, a persistent challenge for many diseases and regions. While coupled atmosphere-ocean phenomena offer a potential solution, they remain largely underexploited in temperate zones. Here, we establish a multiscale connection between cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) dynamics in North Africa, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). Beyond the NAO's influence on seasonal rainfall, we uncover low-frequency variability in the NAO-AMV system that modulates interannual rainfall patterns in North Africa, yielding multiyear periods of high and low CL activity. To quantify this predictability, we develop a unified transmission model applied across Morocco and Tunisia for both anthroponotic (
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