Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42613330›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Global estimation of bankfull river discharge reveals distinct flood recurrences across climate zones.

Yinxue Liu, Michel Wortmann, Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, Jiabo Yin, Marcus Suassuna Santos, Bailey Anderson, Richard Boothroyd, Andrew Nicholas, Greg Sambrook Smith and 12 more

Erratum issuedAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Challenges and opportunities of ML and explainable AI in large-sample hydrology.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Yinxue Liu *School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. yinxue.liu@ouce.ox.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5250-0184
Michel Wortmann *School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. michel.wortmann@ecmwf.int.
Laurence HawkerSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8317-7084
Jeffrey NealSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University Road, Bristol, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5793-9594
Jiabo YinSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2305-8729
Marcus Suassuna SantosDepartment of Hydrology, Geological Survey of Brazil - SGB/CPRM, Brasilia, Brazil.
Bailey AndersonWSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos Dorf, Switzerland.
Richard BoothroydDepartment of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9742-4229
Andrew NicholasGeography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Greg Sambrook SmithSchool of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Philip J AshworthGeography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9642-4857
Hannah ClokeDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X
Solomon GebrechorkosSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7498-0695
Julian LeylandSchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3419-9949
Boen ZhangSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4633-3033
Ellie VahidiGeography, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Helen GriffithJBA Consulting, 1 Broughton Park, Old Lane North, Broughton, Skipton, UK.
Pauline DelormeEnergy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK.
Stuart James McLellandEnergy and Environment Institute, University of Hull, Hull, UK.
Daniel R ParsonsGeography and Environment, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5142-4466
Stephen E DarbySchool of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8778-4394
Louise SlaterSchool of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK. louise.slater@ouce.ox.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9416-488X

Funding

RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/S015728/1RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) NE/S015795/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Bankfull discharge, the maximum flow a river can convey before spilling over its banks, is central to modelling flood risk and understanding river-channel evolution. Global flood inundation models assume a 2-year return period for bankfull conditions, but this assumption remains untested globally. Here we use observations and machine learning to estimate bankfull discharge at ~1-km resolution along a recently developed global river network. We show that the widely used 2-year discharge reasonably approximates bankfull-flow magnitude, but bankfull return periods vary substantially within and across climate zones. Bankfull conditions occur more frequently in tropical and temperate regions (median return periods of 1.5 and 1.8 years; interquartile ranges of 2.5 and 3.2 years, respectively) and less frequently in cold and arid regions (2.8 and 4.3 years; interquartile ranges of 4.8 and 6.0 years). This variation across climate zones provides a basis for improving the representation of channel capacity in global flood models.

Identifiers

PMID42613330
PMCPMC13487230

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.