ArticleStroke2026
Projection of Stroke Incidence and Costs in China: 2022 to 2050.
Article in Stroke, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundStroke imposes a substantial and growing health and economic burden in China, yet forward-looking estimates of stroke-related costs remain scarce.
methodsAnnual age- and sex-specific incidence rates of ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage were projected from 2022 to 2050 using 2021 as the baseline year. Baseline incidence estimates were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, and future trends were projected using an exponential growth model parameterized by the average annual percent change estimated from 1990 to 2021 Global Burden of Disease data. Projected incidence rates were combined with China-specific population projections. A deterministic decision-tree model was used to estimate hospitalization costs, direct medical costs, and societal costs over a 12-month time horizon in China, using probabilities and unit costs from published literature. We used uncertainty intervals (UI) to quantify the plausible range of all projected outcomes. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess uncertainty in epidemiological and cost parameters.
resultsTotal incident strokes are projected to increase from 4.35 million (95% UI, 3.09-5.89 million) in 2022 to 9.59 million (95% UI, 6.81-13.01 million) in 2050. By 2050, ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage incidences are projected to reach 7.89, 1.59, and 0.11 million, respectively. Total annual stroke hospitalization costs are projected to rise from $46.1 billion (95% UI, 44.94-47.24 billion) in 2022 to $91.2 billion (95% UI, 89.28-93.13 billion) in 2050; direct medical costs and societal costs are projected to increase from $67.6 billion to $133.9 billion and from $145.6 billion to $288.4 billion, respectively. Costs will be increasingly concentrated among adults aged ≥65 years, especially those aged ≥85 years. In 2050, stroke costs among men are projected to be approximately 1.3 times those for women. In sensitivity analyses incorporating incidence uncertainty, total annual hospitalization costs ranged from $39.9-$62.3 billion in 2022 to $65.0-$123.6 billion in 2050.
conclusionsStroke incidence and costs in China are projected to increase through 2050, driven primarily by ischemic stroke and population aging, highlighting the need for targeted prevention, capacity planning for older adults, and long-term financing strategies.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.