Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42605715›Full record

ArticleGlobal change biology2026

Sea-Level Rise Constrains the Carbon Permanence of Global Mangrove Restoration.

Jincheng Wu, Zhe Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Shanshan Song, Chenyi Yuan, Guanghui Lin, Bertrand Guenet, Annemiek Stegehuis, Xiaoshan Zhu, Ruili Li and 4 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Global change biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Jincheng WuDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0009-0008-7138-7018
Zhe ZhaoSchool of Life Science, Taizhou University, Taizhou, China.ORCID 0000-0002-2199-5022
Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Shanshan SongDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Chenyi YuanSchool of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences, Beijing, China.
Guanghui LinDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Bertrand GuenetLaboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, IPSL, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-4311-8645
Annemiek StegehuisLaboratoire de Géologie, Ecole Normale Supérieure, CNRS, IPSL, Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-7955-5847
Xiaoshan ZhuSchool of Ecology and Environment, State Key Laboratory of Marine Resource Utilization in South China Sea, Hainan University, Haikou, China.ORCID 0000-0003-1223-1415
Ruili LiSchool of Environment and Energy, Shenzhen Graduate School of Peking University, Shenzhen, China.
Ruikun GouCollege of Forestry, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, China.
Yuchen MengDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Minxuan SunDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0009-0005-1670-3485
Wei LiDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.ORCID 0000-0003-2543-2558

Funding

Hainan International Science and Technology Cooperation R&D Program GHYF2024006Hainan Province Science and Technology Special Fund ZDYF2024SHFZ146National Natural Science Foundation of China 42571109
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mangroves are characterized by high carbon sequestration rates, and future changes in mangrove biomass will be impacted by factors such as climate change, sea level rise, and management strategies. Here, we produce a map of present-day global mangrove aboveground biomass (AGB) based on extensive field observations and satellite data, giving a global mangrove AGB of 1.76 Pg dry matter (DM). After accounting for potential growth to maturity, future changes in climatic and hydrological conditions, possible restoration strategies, and sea-level rise, the global total mangrove AGB is projected to increase by 16.7% under the low-warming scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 and Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, SSP126) and decrease by 19.3% under the high-warming scenario (SSP585) by 2100. Sea-level rise encroaching upon the growth space of mangroves will cause a biomass loss of 41.6% in the high-warming scenario, whereas restoration strategies would only increase AGB by 2.0%. Our study shows that sea-level rise limits the potential of mangrove restoration to maintain carbon stocks, and regions less constrained by sea-level rise offer greater potential for the long-term permanence.

Indexed as

Carbon SequestrationClimate ChangeConservation of Natural ResourcesRhizophoraceaeSea Level RiseWetlandsBiomassCarbonCarbonaboveground biomasscarbon permanenceclimate changemangrovesrestorationsea‐level rise

Identifiers

PMID42605715
PMCPMC13479045

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.