Understanding Food (In) security Through Land and Livelihoods: Evidence from Longitudinal Household Data.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between land tenure, agricultural productivity, livestock ownership, and household food security in rural South Africa, using longitudinal data from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI) collected across three waves (2014-2022) in the Agincourt region of Mpumalanga Province. Drawing on household-level data from adults aged 40 and older, the study analyzes trends in land access, food production, livestock holdings, and socioeconomic characteristics. Descriptive and regression analyses reveal significant declines in food security and private land ownership over time, with only partial recovery in later periods. Secure land tenure is consistently associated with improved food security, while agricultural productivity shows variable effects depending on tenure conditions. Livestock ownership, particularly of cattle, is linked to increased food insecurity, underscoring the complex economic and cultural dimensions of asset management in rural contexts. Household wealth and wage income emerge as the strongest and most consistent predictors of improved food security, especially in more recent waves. The findings highlight the enduring influence of historical land dispossession, economic vulnerability, and structural inequality on rural livelihoods. Addressing food insecurity will require multifaceted interventions that strengthen tenure security, support livelihood diversification, and expand social protection.