Poor Prognostic Factors After Gastrostomy in Patients With Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Two-Center Retrospective Cohort Study.

INTRODUCTION/

aimsPercutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is widely used to manage dysphagia in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, some patients experience rapid clinical deterioration following the procedure. Prognostic factors specific to outcomes following PEG remain insufficiently defined.

methodsThis two-center retrospective cohort study included 117 patients with ALS who underwent PEG prior to tracheostomy between April 2011 and June 2023. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to identify independent prognostic factors following PEG. Explanatory variables included age, sex, onset site, percent of normal forced vital capacity (%FVC), disease duration from onset to PEG, and body mass index. Optimal cutoff values for continuous variables were determined using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analyses.

resultsAmong six examined clinical variables, four were independently associated with worse outcomes after PEG placement as follows: male sex, spinal onset, lower %FVC at the time of PEG, and shorter duration from onset to PEG. Cutoff values were determined as %FVC < 63% and disease duration < 12 months. Log-rank analyses confirmed significantly shorter post-PEG survival in patients meeting these criteria. DISCUSSION: Poorer respiratory function and shorter duration from disease onset to PEG were strongly associated with worse prognosis after PEG. Male sex emerged as an independent prognostic factor, suggesting potential biological differences in disease progression after gastrostomy. These findings underscore the importance of comprehensive clinical evaluation when considering PEG in patients with ALS.