Using Negative Control Outcomes to Detect Selection Bias in Mendelian Randomization Studies.

Mendelian randomization is currently mainly implemented through the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to inestigate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest. Mendelian randomization studies are robust to confounding bias and reverse causation, but they remain susceptible to selection bias; for example, this can happen if the exposure or outcome are associated with selection into the study sample. Negative controls are sometimes used to detect biases (typically due to confounding) in observational studies. Here, we focus specifically on Mendelian randomization analyses and discuss under what conditions a variable can be used as a negative control outcome to detect selection mechanisms that could bias Mendelian randomization estimates. We show that the main requirement is that the negative control outcome relates to confounders of the exposure and outcome. Counter-intuitively, the effect of the negative control on selection is of secondary concern; for example, a variable that does not affect selection can be a valid negative control for an outcome that does. We also investigate under what conditions age and sex can be used as negative control outcomes in Mendelian randomization analyses. In a real-data application, we investigate the pairwise causal relationships between 19 traits, utilizing data from the UK Biobank. Treating biological sex and natural hair color as negative control outcomes, we identify selection bias in analyses involving commonly used traits such as alcohol consumption, body mass index and educational attainment.