From the Rainbow to the Sunset: Anticipated Availability of Informal Care for Older Sexual Minorities in the United States.

Anticipatory support-defined as the perceived availability of future care-functions as a psychological safety net that promotes mental well-being and is predictive of actual support received. Yet, little is known about how it varies by sexual identity. Using data of older adults without current ADL limitations from the 2022 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (n = 11,828), I conducted descriptive analyses, modified Poisson regressions, and pairwise comparisons of predicted probabilities of anticipated support by sexual identity. While there is no strong evidence of sexual identity disparities in the overall availability of future ADL support, the sources of such support varied by sexual identity. Among those with at least one child, the probability of lesbian/gay individuals counting on children/grandchildren were about 27 percentage points lower than that of heterosexual individuals. Additionally, the predicted probability of anticipating support from non-kin or someone else outside of a spouse, descendants, or other relatives was about 10 percentage points higher for lesbian/gay older adults compared to their heterosexual counterparts. These findings underscore both the vulnerability and resilience of sexual minority older adults-who may be less able to rely on kin-based care due to strained or absent family ties, yet more likely to turn to chosen family networks for future support. As formal care systems become increasingly strained, future research is needed to understand how chosen families function as caregiving structures and what barriers sexual minorities face in accessing both formal and informal long-term care.